Freshmen to watch in the Big 12

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/26/2010 -

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -If Bob Stoops had his way, the practice of redshirting incoming freshmen to save them for later would be scrapped at Oklahoma.

He'd rather have his freshmen contribute right away for the seventh-ranked Sooners.

``I believe that the quality of players we're getting, they're not going to be here for that fifth year,'' Stoops said. ``And they're better players in their second year, maybe when we need them more, having played even a little bit in their first year.''

Stoops' crop of first-year players this season have him keeping those redshirts in the closet more than ever.

Nickel back Tony Jefferson, cornerback Aaron Colvin and linebacker Corey Nelson could all get playing time on defense, and Kenny Stills leads a trio of receivers trying to break into the rotation. Trey Millard made such an impact in his first few weeks of practice that he's set to start at fullback.

``I've been saying it over and over, this is a really good class and these guys are really good players,'' Stoop said.

The Sooners aren't the only ones with freshmen who could make an immediate impact. Here are some Big 12 freshmen to watch:

Mike Davis, WR, Texas: Does Longhorns coach Mack Brown need to say much more than this about the Dallas native? ``Mike is a very confident young man. When he walks in the room he knows he's good.'' He's among a higher number of freshmen Brown plans to play this season coming off of a loss in the BCS championship game, including defensive linemen Reggie Wilson and Jackson Jeffcoat, the son of ex-Dallas Cowboys defensive end Jim Jeffcoat.

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: Coach Mike Gundy first noticed the speedy Huntsville, Texas, native toward the end of his sophomore year in high school, then got an early commitment and anxiously waited to get him signed. ``His highlight tape went on for about an hour,'' Gundy recalls. He's already had an 80-yard punt return TD in a preseason scrimmage.

Jake Matthews, OL, Texas A&M: The son of NFL Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews certainly has the pedigree to be a force and he's been practicing with the Aggies' starters in his first training camp. ``He's a very talented young man who works really hard. He's a tough kid and very physical,'' coach Mike Sherman said. He started high school as a quarterback but moved up front now that he's 6-foot-5 and 295 pounds. His brother, Kevin, was A&M's starting center the past two seasons.

Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado: Richardson initially signed with UCLA, where his father played receiver, before being dismissed along with two other players after they were accused of stealing at a campus dormitory. Saying he's trying to ``redeem myself,'' he was cleared to play at Colorado just before training camp and quickly moved up the depth chart in a new-look receiving corps that also includes transfers from Southern Cal and Michigan.

Chase Rome, DT, Nebraska: With No. 2 overall pick Ndamukong Suh gone to the NFL, the Cornhuskers have Jared Crick back to cause trouble for offenses. Rome could join him. He graduated early from Columbia (Mo.) Rock Bridge High School in time to go through winter conditioning and spring practice. Now, coach Bo Pelini says, ``he's showing that he has a possibility of being a factor.''

Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma: Lightning fast, Stills joins Joe Powell and Trey Franks as part of a freshman invasion in an Oklahoma receiving corps that was disappointing a year ago. ``It's a completely different attitude. We've got guys that like to have fun and that are aggressive,'' receivers coach Jay Norvell said. ``They don't back off from anybody, they're not intimidated, and I think it's great.'' Stills emerged in the spring as a potential threat and has continued to impress.

Honorable mentions: Baylor WR Levi Woodson, Iowa State RB Duran Hollis, Kansas DE Keba Agostinho, Missouri OLs Mitch Morse and Nick Demien, Nebraska WR Quincy Enunwa, Texas Tech RB Ben McRoy.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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