Cellar-dwellers face off again in Bucs-Nats clash

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm can make it two straight wins for the Pirates and end his own four-decision skid tonight, when the Washington Nationals return to PNC Park for the middle test of a three-game weekend series.

The Pirates at least stalled a recent slide of five losses in six games in Friday's opener, when Garrett Jones hit two doubles and drove in three runs in an 8-5 win.

Ryan Doumit homered among three hits for the Pirates. Pedro Alvarez drove in two runs, while Jose Tabata and Ronny Cedeno each had two hits.

Bucs starter Zach Duke (7-12) lasted five-plus innings, giving up four runs, five hits and three walks while fanning five for the win.

Danny Espinosa hit his first career home run for the Nationals, who have lost three straight. Adam Dunn and Justin Maxwell each drove in a run in defeat.

Livan Hernandez (9-10) was pounded for eight runs on eight hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings to take the loss for Washington.

Maholm, the eighth overall pick in the 2003 draft, picked up his seventh win of the season on Aug. 3 after a six-inning effort in a 7-6 defeat of Cincinnati. He's 0-4 in five starts since, however, allowing 25 runs on 40 hits in 25 innings while his earned run average has climbed from 4.59 to 5.18.

He retired just 10 batters in his most recent outing, allowing nine hits and eight runs against the Chicago Cubs in a 14-2 embarrassment at Wrigley Field on Monday.

The Mississippi native has faced the Nationals six times in 154 big-league starts but has yet to record a win against them, losing three decisions while posting a 5.30 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Maholm is 5-8 in 14 home starts in 2010.

Fellow lefty John Lannan seeks his first career defeat of the Pirates for Washington as well this evening.

The Long Beach, NY native is 0-3 in five previous outings against Pittsburgh, including a no-decision in Washington's 7-5 home win on June 9, when he was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Lannan has gone 4-3 in eight starts since, however, to even his season record at 6-6. He beat the St. Louis Cardinals, 4-2, Sunday at Nationals Park after allowing one run on eight hits over 7 2/3 innings.

He is 4-3 in 10 road starts this season.

Washington swept a three-game set from the Pirates back in June and had won five in a row in this overall series prior to Friday's setback.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.